Hamas signs his death certificate two years of war after the weakness of Iran and the abandonment of the Arabs

But what forces have acted for the Palestinian group to accept when the 72 -hour window that Washington had granted had already been passed?

A few hours before the acceptance of the plan, the Bloomberg agency announced that the Gulf Arab powers were ready to boost Trump’s plan, Although Hamas will not accept itwhat deprived the terrorist group of his favorite tool, his veto power, and pushed him to give power inside: accept to redeem all hostages and deliver the administration of Gaza to a Palestinian technocratic cabinet.

At the same time, Washington reported that the deadline was extended to Hamas to respond.

“I always believed that if the Saudis and the Cataríes linked their efforts instead of fighting each other they could solve most problems in the Middle East,” the analyst explains to El Español Nadim Shehadiwhich, as announced to this newspaper months ago, the war would only end when the “internal battle” on each side was resolved, not only the negotiation with the enemy.

“The Americans should have declared the state of Palestine immediately after Abraham’s agreements,” says Shehadi, for whom the key is in Iran’s current weakness.

According to its analysis, the 2015 nuclear agreement between Iran and the P5+1 (USA, the United Kingdom, France, Russia, China, Germany and the European Union) was a complete fraud. “The objective of the nuclear agreement was to divert the attention of what Iran was building in the region”, its regional expansion with support for militias and allies in Lebanon (Hezbollah and Hamas), in Syria, in Iraq or Yemen.

Tehran understood the attractiveness of the alleged nuclear disarmament to achieve a favorable negotiating framework only on that program. The background had seen them in the CND (Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament), a historic British NGO for nuclear disarmament and social and political prestige that has that narrative in the West.

“One of the conditions imposed by Iran to continue the negotiations was that the US not to mention Iran’s regional role,” says Shehadi. And Washington accepted, with funestas consequences. The collusion of the governments of the Democrats Barack Obama y Joe Biden With dictatorships such as Iranian or Syria “it has unnecessarily prolonged the conflicts and the number of civilians in the region for decades,” concludes this analyst.

Pressure of the Arab powers

Now, with Iran deactivated after the attacks of Tel Aviv and Washington, and some Gulf and Petrodollar leaders who aspire to live in all rag and peace, pressing Hamas was the best exit.

“It’s okay that Hamas has accepted,” he explains to this newspaper Ahmed Deeba renowned Palestinian photographer who has lost eleven family members under the bombings of Israel, including brothers, nephews and cousins.

The last just a few days ago. “It is too late. But hopefully peace arrives this time,” adds Deb. He acknowledges that surely the pressure of the Arab powers is behind this response, but also that of the United States and their interests in the Gulf countries.

As for Hamas, who ruled the strip since 2006 (last elections held) and that he has been considered a terrorist group by most Western countries, Deb believes that “they know they cannot win with weapons and fighting, so they tried to press the world to act (with the attacks on October 7) and failed. Or the world failed… so they know they will not get anything else, except for losses.”

Right now the support of the Civilians of the Strip to the armed group is “very low or practically nothing,” he says. According to a PSR survey, in May only 37% of the Gazatis supported their government, and 48% supported the internal manifestations that demanded that Hamas leave the administration of the strip.

Mediation of Egypt and Qatar

The former leader of Hamas Mousa Abu Marzoukin an interview with the Catarí Al-Jazeera channel, he acknowledged that the positive response of the group to Trump has occurred after an intense internal process with the different factions and with mediators of Egypt and Qatar. And he pointed out that they still have to “discuss most of the points from 9 to 19 with the Palestinians”, since the plan exceeds the capacity of Hamas and reaches areas related to the UN, the Arab League or the OLP: “We do not have that response in the name of all these parts,” said Marchuk.

In this sense, Marchuk transferred the reluctance of the Gazatí Group, which has put conditions to free “all prisoners of war” (alive and dead): it demands a high immediate fire and the complete withdrawal of Israel de Gaza. In addition, the entry of all humanitarian aid must be allowed.

This ex -combatant has also transferred the logistics difficulty to return bodies that are under the rubble: “We need months to search, dig and remove the debris, to remove those bodies from under the earth. We have many difficulties”, for which they expect coordination with the International Committee of the Red Cross.

Yes they accept that a Palestinian technocratic government governs Gaza and the withdrawal of Hamas from the administration. Marchuk acknowledged that 90% of the group’s capabilities have been destroyed by the violent and disproportionate attack by Israel, but Hamas’s disarmament is conditioned at the end of the occupation: “We do not need weapons if there is no occupation.”

Another of the points that Hamas rejects, according to this spokesman, is the “Council for Peace”, which would be captained by the former British Prime Minister Tony Blair: “The Palestinians will reject that anyone controls them, and Tony Blair lied, caused all the problems to the Iraqis, and failed. We cannot bring someone like Blair to govern Gaza, he is looking for only enriching himself.”

What will Israel do?

However, the problem now lies in the response of Benjamin Netanyahuaccording to the analyst Natasha Hallof the CSIS: “Ambiguity is not in Hamas, but in Israel. Hamas is no longer an actor, they have killed all their military and negotiator leaders, it does not have what negotiating with whom to negotiate,” and Gaza is demolished. “They had to accept this agreement, they couldn’t do anything else.”

But the bottleneck is political: if Hamas fulfills its part and delivers to the 48 hostages, Netanyahu will not have internal opposition and could continue the war, because the pressure linked to the release of the hostages is dissipated. That is why Hall asks to critically observe what the Israeli and also Trump, to see if the plan is viable without the tangible pressure of the White House, especially at the key point of the Israeli withdrawal.